??????? 69 ??? ? III ?? ?? NYHA ? ?? ?? 25% ???????? ???? ? ????????? 80 ??/?????. ?? ????? ????? ???? 80 ??, ????????????? ?? 120 ?? ??.??., ?????????? 12,5 ?/??, %?????????? 19%, ??????? ??????? ??????? 7,0 ??/??, ?????? ??????????? 195 ??/?? ? ?????? 136 ????/?.
β-????????????:
???????? (??????) 69/10*ln (1.09)=0.595
??? (???????) 1 * ln (1.089)=0.085
?? NYHA 3*ln(1.60)=1.410
???? 100/EF 100/25*ln(1.03)=0.118
??????????? ??????? 1*ln(1.354)=0.303
??(10 mm Hg) 120/10*ln(0.877)=-1.575
???? 1*ln(0.77)=-0.261
????????/?? 80 ??/80 ??*ln(1.17
=0.164Na<138 138-136=2*ln(1.05)=0.098
??????????<16 16-12.5=3.5*ln(1.124)=0.409
% ??????????(5%) 19/5*ln(0.897)=-0.413
??????? ??????? 7.0*ln(1.064)=0.434
100/?????????? 100/195*ln(2.206)=0.406
???? SHFM =1.77
???????????? (1 yr)=e(- l*t)e(SHFM Score)=e(- 0.0405*1)e(1.77)=79%
???????????? (5 yr)=e(- l*t)e(SHFM Score)=e(- 0.0405*5)e(1.77)=30%
??? ?????????? β-????????? ?? ????? ????????? β-??????????? ??? β-????????? (1*ln(0.66)=-0.42) ? ???? ?? SHFM ????? 1,77-0,42=1,36, ??? ???????? 1- ? 5-?????? ???????????? ?????????????? ?? 85% ? 46%.
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